Two new district-level surveys show Democratic challengers Shannon Taylor and Cait Conley narrowly ahead of Republican incumbents Rob Wittman and Mike Lawler. Neither result establishes a clear leader because each advantage is smaller than the survey’s stated uncertainty.
A Washington Post–Schar School poll conducted Sept. 23–28 found Taylor at 50% and Wittman at 46% among 609 likely voters in Virginia’s 1st District. The four-point difference falls within the poll’s ±4.5-point margin of error. The district backed Wittman by 13 points in 2024, while Donald Trump carried it by 4.9 points.
In New York’s 17th District, an Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey conducted Sept. 27–29 put Conley at 48%, Lawler at 46% and undecided voters at 7%. The sample included 400 likely voters and had a ±4.9-point credibility interval, so that race also remains too close to call.
The snapshots suggest both contests are competitive with the Nov. 3 midterms approaching. They do not predict the final result, and district-level estimates can shift as turnout assumptions change and undecided voters make their choices.
