The fuel-oil market is forecast to face a deficit of 218,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, Reuters reported, citing consultancy Energy Aspects. The figure is a forecast for the quarter, not a confirmed measure of a shortage already reached.

Energy Aspects estimated a much smaller deficit of 6,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025. Fuel oil is used mainly by ships and some power plants, so the projection does not refer to the entire crude-oil market or to every refined fuel.

Reuters reported that wars affecting refineries and tanker traffic have reduced supplies while refiners favor more profitable diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Rystad Energy also expects supplies to remain critically tight during the quarter, with Asia especially exposed because of its reliance on Gulf flows.

Stocks in Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah were about 30% below three-year seasonal averages, according to data compiled by Reuters. Very-low-sulphur fuel oil in Singapore had risen 76% since the Iran war began, a price increase that could raise costs for shipowners and feed into freight rates.